Principles for dynamic updating and visualization of the risk picture with a QRA-basis

Principles for dynamic updating and visualization of the risk picture with a QRA-basis

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Abstract

The use of quantitative risk analyses (QRA), sometimes referred to as total risk analyses (TRA), is the standard approach to reveal the overall risk picture in the offshore oil and gas industry. Such analyses are updated typically every five year. Operational and organizational aspects are often ignored, or to a very low extent treated. The rather static risk picture is therefore not very relevant for day to day decisions. Various attempts have been made to make the risk picture more dynamic by introducing indicators that could be measured more frequently, and hence used to update the risk picture. In the paper we review some of these attempts and discuss challenges of various kinds. For example many safety barriers are not explicit modelled in the QRA analyses, which is a challenge when using barrier status as an attempt to make the static risk picture more dynamic. In the literature relative few attempts are made to update the risk picture in real time based on the QRA basis. Some approaches for such update with very short time factors are presented. Finally we discuss various ways to visualize the risk picture, i.e., the following operators applied on the risk picture: zooming, filtering, aggregating, merging hiding/unhiding and projecting.
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